The American president said war was unlikely. The Iranian foreign minister said there were no negotiations. The American secretary of state said there was no progress. And on Sunday, while all three were speaking, Houthi missiles struck Saudi Arabia’s capital and damaged an Aramco office tower in Riyadh. That is the state of the Gulf on Monday 9 November: diplomacy described in opposite terms by the two sides that would have to conduct it, pressure still being applied by both, and a regional war that has not waited for the talks to decide whether they exist.
Two messages in one weekend
President Donald Trump told CNN by phone over the weekend that new attacks on Iran were “highly unlikely” if talks produced a strong agreement and the Strait of Hormuz reopened. He also told CBS’s “60 Minutes” that he was “not looking to” escalate the war, per CNN. The condition matters: the unlikelihood is conditional on progress, not a promise that force is off the table.
At the same time, Trump posted that “Task Force Iron Gate” — a new US operation against weapons and sanctioned goods crossing Iran’s land borders and the Caspian Sea — is in “full force”, alongside a naval blockade, per the Economic Times, Hindu BusinessLine and Gulf News. Diplomacy is described as likely to work, and pressure as already at full strength.
What Tehran says
Tehran hears something different. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that no negotiations had taken place since the “shock” of the US midterms, that mediators had stopped travelling, and that Tehran’s two-day proposal was the most reasonable option. He warned Iran would “rain down hell” if the US did not accept ending hostilities on all fronts.
The exact scope of that two-day proposal, and the seven conditions reported alongside it, are not presented here as confirmed — they come via a partisan analysis site, and the details have not been verified in the mainstream reporting available.
That is also what Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Sunday: “I have no progress to report”, calling Iran’s demands “outrageous and ridiculous”, per Gulf News. CNN adds that both sides and Qatar, which is mediating, have revealed little about the discussions. Trump is expected to meet Qatar’s prime minister in Washington on Monday.
Sunday in Riyadh and the Gulf
While the diplomacy was being described in opposite terms, the war continued. On Sunday, the Houthis claimed strikes on Riyadh’s King Abdullah Financial District; Saudi officials said falling debris and shrapnel caused minor damage to an Aramco office tower, with no casualties, and that air defences intercepted missiles aimed at Riyadh and the Eastern Region.
At sea, US Central Command said it struck and disabled the St Kitts-flagged cargo ship M/V Huda in the Gulf of Oman after it allegedly tried to breach the blockade. Iranian media said no vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, and Iraq’s foreign minister said Baghdad had reached an understanding with Washington to export oil via a lane near Oman.
Oil: down, but not settled
Oil fell on Monday morning in India. Brent crude was down about 1% at about $97.30 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate down 0.6% at about $90.29, according to the Economic Times’ morning report — after last week saw the sharpest weekly oil fall since April 2020. Hindu BusinessLine had Brent at $98.26 and WTI at $91.26 at 10:02 IST: prices moved during the day, and the two figures are two snapshots hours apart, not a disagreement. This article quotes the Economic Times’ morning figure with its timestamp for that reason.
The fall is a bet on diplomacy, not evidence of it. Traders are pricing in Trump’s “highly unlikely” remark; they are also pricing in a week in which oil lost more than 16% — while Gulf News noted Murban physical crude actually rose 3.42% to $99.17 on Monday, about $1.70 above Brent futures. When paper oil falls and physical oil rises, the market is saying the risk has not gone away.
What to watch next
Three things will show whether the weekend’s words become anything more. The first is Monday’s meeting in Washington between Trump and Qatar’s prime minister — Qatar is the mediator, and it has said almost nothing about the state of the talks. The second is the strait itself: whether any vessel crosses Hormuz, and whether the blockade and Task Force Iron Gate produce another incident like the M/V Huda. The third is the Houthi campaign against Saudi Arabia: a second strike on Riyadh would say more about the state of the war than any statement from either capital.
For now, the position is as the weekend left it. The American president says new strikes are highly unlikely if talks succeed. The Iranian foreign minister says there are no talks. The American secretary of state says there is no progress. And in Riyadh, debris from Sunday’s attack is being cleared from an Aramco tower.
Did Trump rule out new strikes on Iran?
No. He told CNN new attacks were “highly unlikely” if talks produced a strong agreement and Hormuz reopened — a conditional statement, not a ruling-out. The military option remains on the table.
Are the US and Iran actually negotiating?
Iran’s foreign minister says no negotiations have taken place since the US midterms; the US Secretary of State says he has “no progress to report”. Qatar is mediating and has revealed little.
What happened in Riyadh on Sunday?
The Houthis claimed strikes on the King Abdullah Financial District; Saudi officials said debris/shrapnel caused minor damage to an Aramco office tower, with no casualties, and air defences intercepted missiles aimed at Riyadh and the Eastern Region.
What happened to oil prices?
Brent fell about 1% to ~$97.30 and WTI ~0.6% to ~$90.29 on Monday morning IST (Economic Times), after the sharpest weekly fall since April 2020. Prices moved during the day.